AIAI briefMeeting brief2026-07-31BoJ

BOJ Holds Rate at 1.0% With One Dissent

The Bank of Japan decided to keep guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 1.0%, by a vote of 8 to 1. 1

Board member Takata dissented, proposing a rise to around 1.25% on the grounds of upside price risks from an overseas demand shock and a shift in overseas financial conditions; the proposal was rejected by majority vote. 1 2

The Outlook Report says Japan's economy is recovering moderately despite some weakness linked to the Middle East situation, and is expected to keep growing moderately in fiscal 2026 at a slower pace. 1 2

Core CPI inflation is projected to rise clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026, then narrow toward around 2% later in the projection period. 1 2

Compared with the previous outlook, the growth forecast is broadly unchanged, while fiscal 2026 core CPI was revised down due to government summer energy subsidies. 1

The minutes, due 2026-09-28, record the overnight rate ranging 0.976–0.981% and JGB purchases of about 2.5 trillion yen in July, against about 2.7 trillion yen in June. 1

Cited releases · 4

BoJPress conferenceJul 31, 2026JA

Governor's regular press conference (July 31, 2026) AIAI translation

AI At the Monetary Policy Meeting on July 31, 2026, the Bank decided by majority vote to maintain its guideline for market operations, encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0%, while a proposal by Board member Takata to raise the rate to around 1.25% was rejected by a majority. Following the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, the Governor explained that the economy is recovering moderately, that underlying inflation is approaching 2% with upside price risks greater, and that the Bank will continue raising the policy rate according to economic, price and financial conditions, judging the timing and pace while examining the effects of the Middle East situation, AI-related demand and exchange rate movements.

BoJMinutesSep 28, 2026JA

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting (July 30–31, 2026) AIAI translation

AI These minutes of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting held on July 30 and 31, 2026 record the executive staff's report that the uncollateralized overnight call rate moved in a range of 0.976-0.981% and that monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds were about 2.5 trillion yen in July (about 2.7 trillion yen in June). They also set out reports on domestic and overseas financial and economic conditions, noting that Japan's economy is recovering moderately despite the effects of the Middle East situation, along with the members' assessments of overseas economies and prices.

BoJReportJul 31, 2026JA

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2026): The Bank's View AIAI translation

AI At the Monetary Policy Meeting held on July 30 and 31, 2026, the Bank of Japan decided the basic stance of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2026). It projects continued moderate growth in fiscal 2026 despite the drag from higher oil prices, and projects that year-on-year CPI inflation excluding fresh food will rise clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026. Growth is broadly unchanged from the previous outlook and fiscal 2026 inflation is revised down. Risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, while risks to prices are skewed to the upside.

BoJStatementJul 31, 2026JA

Statement on Monetary Policy AIAI translation

AI At its Monetary Policy Meeting on July 31, 2026, the Bank of Japan decided, by a vote of 8 to 1, that until the next meeting it will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0%. Board member Takata proposed raising it to around 1.25%, but the proposal was rejected by a majority.