AIAI briefMeeting brief2026-06-17Fed

FOMC holds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent

The FOMC voted 12–0 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent and reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. 1 2

The statement says economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty owing in part to the conflict in the Middle East. It says job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little. 1 2

The statement describes inflation as elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, partly reflecting supply shocks that have raised prices in certain sectors, including energy. 1

The minutes say optimism about a resolution of the Middle East conflict and a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding pushed the oil futures curve and near-term inflation compensation materially lower relative to the April meeting. Expected policy rates, Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and equity prices rose. 1

The Summary of Economic Projections shows 2026 real GDP growth of 2.2 percent, an unemployment rate of 4.3 percent and PCE inflation of 3.6 percent. 1

Chairman Warsh's press conference said the meeting reflected rigorous debate and that the Committee's objectives are price stability and maximum employment. 1

Cited releases · 4

FedPress conferenceJun 17, 2026EN

FOMC Press Conference June 17, 2026

FedMinutesJul 8, 2026EN

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16–17, 2026

AI These are the minutes of the June 16–17, 2026 FOMC meeting. They open with the manager's report on the intermeeting period: oil futures and near-term inflation compensation fell on optimism about a US–Iran memorandum of understanding, while expected policy rates, Treasury yields, the dollar and equities rose. Markets and the Desk survey expected no change in the federal funds rate target range at this meeting, and the Committee unanimously ratified the Desk's domestic transactions, with no foreign currency interventions.

FedStatementJun 17, 2026EN

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

AI In a 12-0 vote, the FOMC decided on 2026-06-17 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent and reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. The statement says economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty partly tied to the conflict in the Middle East, and that inflation remains elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, partly reflecting supply shocks in sectors including energy.

FedReportJun 17, 2026EN

Summary of Economic Projections, June 17, 2026

AI In conjunction with the June 16–17, 2026 FOMC meeting, participants' projections under their individual assumptions of appropriate monetary policy show real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028 (2.0% longer run), and unemployment of 4.3%, 4.3% and 4.2% (4.2% longer run). PCE inflation is projected at 3.6% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, core PCE inflation at 3.3%, 2.5% and 2.1%, and the federal funds rate at 3.8%, 3.6% and 3.4% (3.1% longer run).